The Balkans have long been a region of geopolitical tensions. From the atrocities that transpired after the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s to debates on European Union accession—indeed, whether the Balkan states are European at all—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia (and sometimes Greece) are often viewed as hotspots of political upheaval spurred by inter- and intranational tensions. Such tensions are exemplified in the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo. Relations between the two countries have historically been extremely tense, with innumerous instances of violence and diplomacy. However, animosity has recently spiked over Kosovo’s 2024 euro-only policy and violent actions in the north of the country, where many Serbians reside. With recent Trump-era international aid policies, this flare-up is unlikely to be resolved soon. 

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Historical Background

While Kosovo has been an important region for centuries, with hard-fought battles to control its territory ranging from the Ottoman Empire to Bulgaria, the legacy of Kosovo as a nation began quite recently in 2008, when the country declared its independence from Serbia—a declaration Serbia swiftly condemned as illegal. Serbs in North Kosovo—a region that only joined Kosovo and recognized it as a country in 2013—eagerly agreed. Beyond disagreements over national legitimacy, the two countries differ monetarily; while Kosovo uses the euro, Serbia uses only dinars. However, with international backing from the EU, Kosovo held its first elections in 2009 and 2010, which were deemed to largely be peaceful, free, and fair. With the continuation of such elections, Kosovo’s period of EU-supervised independence ended in 2012, cementing the country’s freedom.

However, the country was far from unified. Kosovo is primarily ethnically composed of Albanians (90%) and ethnic Serbs (6%), and violence between the two groups and countries continued to escalate. The most apt example of this was in 2012, wherein Kosovo arrested four Serbians for crossing a disputed border and Serbia arrested two Kosovo trade unionists in retaliation, sparking tension between countries and citizens alike. In 2013, the countries came to a landmark agreement normalizing relations and integrating the Kosovo Serbs into the country by including them in legal structures, thus allowing the Serb-majority North Kosovo to become part of the nation. With a tentative peace, Kosovo entered talks to join the EU. 

Yet eight years later, in 2021, tensions flared again as Kosovo instructed Serbians entering the country to replace their Serbian license plates with temporary Republic of Kosovo ones or turn around. In retaliation, Serbians blockaded the border. Despite an EU-brokered agreement that deescalated police presence and created a working group, the discussion flared once more in 2022 when Kosovo stated that it would institute a fine for those refusing to alter their license plates. In 2023, the Ohrid Agreement was signed between Serbia and Kosovo as tensions thawed, creating instructions to renew semi-friendly relations including a ceasefire, yet the failure of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti to allow Serbian autonomy and Serbian goods into Kosovo has all but squandered the agreement. In short, relations between the two countries remained volatile.

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Renewed Tensions

In 2024 and 2025, Serbia and Kosovo have once again come into conflict, primarily due to two factors: the 2023 elections in Kosovo and accusations of human rights violations against minorities in both countries. Two years ago, Kosovo’s Serbs boycotted local elections to demand the creation of an association of Kosovo Serb municipalities. Unfortunately, this backfired, leading to politicians supported by the Kosovo majority winning office. The Serbs protested these results, making blockades in an attempt to prevent the new officials from accessing their office and attacking NATO peacekeepers and journalists alike. NATO peacekeepers eventually dispersed the crowd with tear gas.  

Just the next year, in early 2024, Kosovo shut down many post offices in Serb-majority municipalities, making it extremely difficult for pensioners or other Serbians on government assistance to collect their earnings. Moreover, Kosovo issued a law in 2023 ordering all post offices to only use the euro, meaning that those who do make the journey often have to spend many euros and hours to collect such pensions. While Kosovo insists that it’s merely following the 2023 law, Serbia has accused them of “provoking conflict” by raiding these post offices last August. 

Such a situation is only further complicated by Serbia itself; in June, the state arrested a Kosovo Albanian man under suspicion of involvement in abducting three Serbian police officers in the late 1990s, and Albania and Kosovo accused Serbia itself of human rights violations when the state marked many addresses of ethnic Albanians in south Serbia as “inactive,” thus making it impossible for such citizens to renew their legal documents. Moreover, Serbia was condemned for detaining two civil rights activists based in Kosovo, both at the Belgrade airport and the Serbia-Kosovo border. As nationalism rises in both countries, with Serbian authoritarian attitudes and Kosovo ethno-territorial beliefs, the situation of their minorities worsens, and the cycle repeats itself. 

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Tensions in recent months and Trump’s policies

The most recent months have not signaled any sort of renewal of diplomacy between Serbia and Kosovo. In September, Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić were locked in a war of words, as Kurti accused Vučić of “irrationality and aggression” as well as initiating an “aggressive campaign for new conflicts”. Vučić predictably shot back, stating that Kurti and his government appeared to be obsessed with him and are holding up progress on peace talks. 

A canal explosion in November only worsened the situation. The canal provided water to Kosovo’s two main power plants, leading the government to raid multiple Serbian homes and accuse Serbia of a terrorist act—an accusation Vučić vehemently denies. Even though the two countries are technically cooperating in investigating the explosion, the deprivation of the Kosovo water supply has heightened emotions, and the UN has called for more responsible leadership from both countries. 

While international organizations are invested in keeping a tentative peace between the two countries, the United States—a nation key to international diplomatic relations—is significantly less interested. Recently-elected U.S. President Donald Trump’s suspension of foreign aid has affected hundreds of USAID projects in the Balkans region, including organizations in Serbia and Kosovo working towards peace. Such projects range from civil society organizations to state institutions, and while the exact number and names of these projects are unknown, it’s clear that without such significant foreign aid invested in peace in the western Balkans, tensions will undoubtedly continue to flare. 

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Looking Ahead

Where will relations between Serbia and Kosovo go from here? It’s tough to say. Donald Trump’s policies are notoriously unpredictable, and it’s hard to say if, or which, projects in the two countries will receive USAID funding once more—especially as the Supreme Court denied Trump’s aid freeze, thus injecting further uncertainty into the situation. However, with the current state of affairs, the situation doesn’t appear to be getting better any time soon; in early February 2025, Kurti and his party once again won Kosovo elections (though without a majority), and from their sour relationship so far, it is clear that the two leaders aren’t eager for diplomacy. However, there’s no telling if or when the UN or EU will intervene in the situation. With the U.S. out of the picture, it’s possible that Serbia will turn to Russia or another nearby ally, or Kosovo will strengthen ties with neighboring Albania. Unfortunately, ill will only begets more tension, and a strong international effort is needed to delay more violence.