Politics in Pakistan have always been confusing, especially when trying to understand who holds true power in the country. Is Parliament really the supreme legislative body, or merely a crucible of partisan infighting?  Do the country’s democratic institutions hold any concrete power, or do they operate only with the permission of the military? And why is it that in its entire 75 year history, no single prime minister of Pakistan has ever completed a full term? These questions, and more, point toward an issue at the heart of democratic Pakistani politics: no political grouping, institution, or party has ever had fully stable control over all the levers of power. Even the military, which undoubtedly has held political sway behind-the-scenes for decades, is regularly forced to bow before popular movements and economic sentiments. It seems, however, that a new power player is taking the Pakistani political scene by storm: Crusteez Donuts. 

How has a singular donut shop, not even part of a chain, taken center stage of Islamabad’s many political crises? To understand this, one must first understand the nature of the so-called “donut shop incident” itself. In August of 2024, Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa walked into Crusteez donuts, where he was promptly denied service by the employee on duty, who proceeded to swear at him. Caught on tape and posted to social media, the clip went viral. While some called for the employee to be fired, the primary public response was overwhelming support. Beyond just the classic general discontent that most people have for politicians, Chief Justice Faez Isa is uniquely unpopular, primarily due to his association with the establishment, anti-Imran Khan political grouping. 

While not an overtly political figure, Faez Isa has repeatedly ruled against Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). His wife, Sarina Isa, has also been extremely critical of Imran Khan and his government, repeatedly calling for Khan’s resignation when he was prime minister, and has even challenged him to a televised debate. Khan himself has issued direct and quite personal criticisms of Faez Isa, calling him corrupt as well as mentally unfit. This has been the primary contributor to his apparent unpopularity, as the PTI, and Khan in particular, are wildly popular at the moment with a highly energized base. The origins of this feud began back in April of 2022, when Imran Khan was ousted from the prime ministership after losing a vote of no confidence. Later on, in October of that year, Khan was removed from Parliament entirely on corruption charges, charges he said were politically motivated to keep him from power. In November of 2022, Khan was shot but survived an assassination attempt. In May of 2023, Imran Khan was arrested, prompting nationwide riots, and, interestingly, direct protests against the military, typically considered taboo. Only two days later, Khan was released after the Supreme Court stated his arrest was illegal, only for him to be arrested again later in August and banned from politics for five years. 

After a further series of charges, some of which were again struck down by the Court, the PTI was barred from the upcoming February 2024 election just a month before it was set to take place. All its candidates were forced to run as independents, and the party logo was removed from all ballots. In a country with a literacy rate of 62%, many voters identify their political parties solely by the logo, so this was a significant punishment for the PTI. Despite this, the PTI emerged as the largest party, claiming the most seats but just short of a majority. As such, a group of opposition parties were able to form a ruling coalition. Pro-PTI protests again erupted across the country, though this time the military was harsher in its response: mass arrests followed, as well as the deployment of heavy surveillance systems into many pro-PTI precincts. Various social media sites, including Youtube and Facebook, were blocked nationwide, and reports of human rights abuses against protesters carried out by the military were reported. Since then, Imran Khan has cycled between jail, house arrest, and bond, though notably many of his charges have been dropped by the courts and a significant portion of electoral restrictions against the PTI were deemed unconstitutional. Through this political turmoil, one thing has remained certain, however: Imran Khan’s high level of popular support, as well as what many would consider belligerence on the part of the Court, has given the PTI a real shot at power despite its anti-establishment, anti-military views. 

But since the Crusteez incident, where have things gone, and what has been the further role of the Supreme Court? Under its current configuration, the Supreme Court, despite the opinions of its Chief Justice, is largely viewed as being pro-Khan, and arguably, nominally pro-democracy. While the government has repeatedly arrested PTI candidates and continues to stack charges against Khan, the Court has regularly, though not in every instance, lessened or outright stopped the punishments from taking effect. The reason the Crusteez controversy struck such a nerve was due to its timing: Faez Isa was set to retire in late October, which would have paved the way for the next-most senior Justice, Mansoor Ali Shah, to become Chief Justice. Ali Shah has been a notable Khan ally, and his ascension to Chief Justice would have given the PTI functional power over the appointment of federal judicial positions, a power held by the Chief Justice in Pakistan. 

Only days before Faez Isa’s retirement, though, the largely anti-PTI parliament passed the 26th amendment, stripping the Chief Justice position of many of its powers, as well as setting term limits for Supreme Court Judges and requiring the appointment of some new Justices to pass a parliamentary vote. Additionally, several new parliamentary appointee positions have been added to the judicial selection process, which was once almost completely run by established judges. Prime Minister Shebhaz Sharif, a known political opponent of Imran Khan and the elder brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was indicted for corruption under Khan’s premiership, called the amendment a victory affirming the “supremacy of Parliament.” The amendment has received widespread international criticism, including from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which called it a violation of the separation of powers in Pakistan, a weakening of the judiciary, and a threat to the independence of the courts. The PTI has vowed to challenge the legitimacy of the amendment via a nationwide protest, as well as through Supreme Court itself, which could raise interesting legal questions as to the nature of judicial power in Pakistan. Whether or not the PTI even has the grounds for such a challenge is yet unknown, though political posturing from both sides is sure to follow. 

Clear from the complex legal power struggle playing out in Pakistan, sides have been drawn. On one, the political establishment, led by Shebhaz Sharif and the military, and on the other, the PTI, Imran Khan, and significant swathes, likely a majority, of Pakistan’s voters. With Pakistan’s next election potentially being as late as mid-2029 (though, parliament has breached its legal requirements and skipped elections before, as it did to the PTI’s anger after Imran Khan’s ousting in 2022), it is probable that the political unrest that has defined Pakistani politics since Imran Khan’s fall from power will continue. This mix of political and legal uncertainty, combined with Pakistan’s already tense security situation and its dire economic situation, put the country on a very dangerous path. At least one can find assurance that Crusteez Donuts will continue to provide dessert in the heart of Islamabad.